Is the UK about to go through a political revolution the likes of which we have not seen since at least the end of WW2? I suspect the answer is YES but not necessarily for the reasons the media is suggesting.
It seems clear at this point the Labour will win and by a significant degree. So the RED end of the Uniparty will govern us for the next five years. I see that as a given. It’s what may happen to the BLUE end of the Uniparty that interests me and which may strike the spark that changes the UK forever.
Let’s start by examining this poll.
This specific has been seized upon by Nigel Farage as evidence that REFORM are now the main threat to Labour and he may well be right. This is NATIONAL polling and will therefore include London stats which are massively skewed towards Labour. If you remove London from the stats, you see that Reform is a much more lethal threat to the Conservatives elsewhere and indeed the suggestion is it may end up with half a dozen MPs. That would be impressive - but 6/7 MPs out of 650 won’t change much. So how does change actually happen?
It’s what lies in store for the Conservatives that is the likely game changer. Several polls now show them plunging from 350 seats to 70-80 seats. If this happens in parallel with Reform rising, we will have fireworks.
Can you imagine the bitter recriminations and the demands for dramatic change from shell shocked Tories? This places the Conservatives at a historic low and just about able to claim to even by the Opposition! Ironically, the man who has led the to this sorry state, Rishi Sunak, may well keep his seat.
Most of the current “faces” amongst the Conservative ranks will be washed away. Sadly, that will include a few very decent Conservatives such as Dame Andrea Jenkyns. It looks like Suella Braverman will survive and she may well be the pivot around which the revolution can change. She has already indicated that Nigel Farage would be welcome in her Party. However it also looks like ‘Kemi” Badenoch will survive and she has been less than gracious about Nigel Farage.
But whoever prevails and leads the Conservative rump, they are faced with a terrible prospect. Reform have stolen their decent clothes and their track record has made them unelectable. Their ability to stop Labour doing what Labour wants is therefore zero. This is all good news because it means that the Blue end of the Uniparty can no longer credibly posture as a genuine force.
Farage could well lead a sort of “merger” and produce “Reformed Conservatives”. This coalition could join forces with the DUP and chart out a five year plan to unite the right across the country and that means bringing into the broad tent the likes of the Heritage Party, Tommy Robinson’s followers, UKIP and all the rest. That would be REAL movement, detached from the now shattered Uniparty and capable of bringing us revolutionary change by 2029. This is our only chance but it’s a real chance.