Reform vs Restore!
The announcement from Rupert Lowe that Restore Britain are standing a candidate in the Makerfield by‑election is, on paper, rather good news for Labour and Andy Burnham. It almost certainly fragments the anti‑Labour vote that has been powering Reform’s surge in Wigan. How can this be deemed a good thing?
Reform’s path to victory relies on uniting a big tent of disillusioned Labour and Conservative voters behind a single “send them a message” vehicle. In the 2026 Wigan locals they effectively did that, sweeping 24 of 25 seats and topping the poll in every Makerfield ward. Early by‑election modelling puts them clearly ahead of Labour on those numbers. Now Restore Britain is deliberately stepping into the same lane: anti‑mass immigration, anti‑“woke”, fiercely critical of the entire political class.
The Polls suggest Restore’s support comes heavily from people who would otherwise sit in exactly the space Reform needs: previous Reform backers, some ex‑Tories, and non‑voters tempted by a harder‑line protest option. It’s the same pool with the same fish. In one March 2026 survey Restore scored 7% nationally, mostly at Reform’s expense, while Reform remained ahead but clearly trimmed down. If even a modest chunk of Reform‑leaning Makerfield voters peel off to “try something purer” in Restore, that directly reduces Reform’s chance of beating Labour in a first‑past‑the‑post by‑election.
The personalities matter too. Lowe has made no secret of his hostility to Nigel Farage and Reform UK. Restore is explicitly pitching itself as the better vehicle for angry right‑wing voters, attacking Reform as a recycled Tory outfit rather than a genuine reset. That feud makes it harder for Reform to claim to be the sole flag‑carrier for “real opposition”, and easier for Labour to frame the contest as Burnham versus a split right protest vote.
At the margins, and at a very practical level, Restore also helps Labour simply by complicating the ballot paper. Every extra anti‑system logo increases the risk that casual protest voters split several ways or stay home in confusion, while Labour’s core vote turns out for a big‑name candidate they already know from the mayoralty.
Of course none of this guarantees Burnham a win but it does change the odds. A straight Labour‑Reform fight plays to Reform’s current momentum in Wigan; a three‑way scrap on the populist right, with Restore poaching some of Reform’s angriest supporters, is exactly the scenario in which Labour can come through the middle and hold the seat.
Reform are the party most likely to WIN. I don’t believe Restore has any chance. The margins of victory are going to be tight so why is Restore Britain doing this?
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I didn’t have a view on Lowe before this, it is now clear that he is an establishment shill.
As I commented under your "Waterloo" post, this is a very high-risk strategy in terms of the potential consequences for both the UK and Restore. For whatever reason Labour has decided that Burnham is its Messiah (utterly bizarre, of course). If he gets in then the left will be creaming themselves and the right will fall in line because the only alternative is prolonged internal warfare. Burnham in no. 10 with - say - Miliband in no. 11 will be a cataclysmic disaster for this nation, with three years in which they will totally wreck the industry, economy and cohesion of the UK and take us back into the EU (on any terms).
At that point I believe that the damage to the UK will be functionally irreversible and the future non-electability of Labour (which no longer does what it says on the tin, anyway) will be moot; its job will be done. Restore will also be terminally damaged if it is seen to let Burnham slip past a split vote but, again, that will be irrelevant; it will be too late for any good which it might have done. Everything should therefore be done to prolong Labour’s civil war and to punish Burnham for his entitlement and the temerity of using Makerfield’s voters so cynically.
As for why Lowe is doing this? I think the answer is that a combination of totally unrealistic hubris in the wake of the Great Yarmouth results and his personal vendetta with Farage is preventing him from seeing straight. Although I have no truck with Farage's treatment of Lowe, in recent weeks and months I have become unsurprised that they fell out - they are, in more ways than either is likely to want to admit, birds of a feather.