Shabana Mahmood and Janus!

Janus was a Greek god gifted with the ability to look in two directions at once. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood may be a modern incarnation as tries to see off the threat to Labour from the right (Reform) and the threat to Labour from the left (Greens)

She is introducing a major overhaul of the UK asylum system, making refugee status temporary instead of a route to quick permanent settlement. Refugees granted status will receive 30 months’ protection, after which their cases will be reviewed and they could be returned if their home country is deemed safe.

Existing claimants and unaccompanied children will still get five years’ protection under current rules while a longer-term policy for children is developed.​

Further planned reforms, which require legislation, would double the usual time to permanent residency from five to 10 years for most migrants and potentially up to 20 years for refugees. Mahmood, inspired partly by Denmark’s toughened approach, says she is shifting the “age‑old assumption” of refugees having permanent status to make the UK less attractive to “illegal migrants” and deter small‑boat crossings.

She insists the reforms are “existential” to restoring border control and public trust and vows to end hotel use by moving asylum seekers into more austere accommodation.​

However, by making immigration slightly less easy, she triggers annoyance in that all important Labour muslim bloc vote! Critics, including the Refugee Council, warn that constant reviews will be costly, slow decision‑making, and hinder refugees’ ability to work and integrate if they feel they are always close to removal. Around 40 Labour MPs have called elements of the settlement changes “un‑British” and fear damage to sectors like social care.

Labour have seen in Gorton and Denton that their core muslim voter base is shifting away from them. Any restrictions on “asylum seeking” will further alienate this base. However Nigel Farage’s Reform, under pressure from Restore GB, are rapidly toughening up their approach to these migrants.

So Mahmood is really in an impossible position. Labour are caught in an existential trap and I cannot see any way out.