The Crossing Point.

The smug comfortable UK political establishment does not want the status quo ruffled too much and nowhere is that more obvious than in the behaviour of Polling organisations Savanta UK and Opinium.

Here’s what they are claiming is the situation in the British polls.

As you can see, this places Reform at less than half the Conservative vote with Labour in a massive lead. Now let’s look at Opinium.

Once again, support for the Conservatives is running at twice that of Reform.

But there’s something else going on here.

Nigel Farage makes it clear what he thinks is happening…

I think Farage is right. This is weaponising polling methodology to create a particular result and the result is always going to be the same - Vote Labour or Conservative! Now not ALL polls are as biased as those above and perhaps one of the better Polls from YouGuv portrayed a very different landscape a few days ago!

Even the above poll has had methodology revised and so it is entirely possible that Reform are equal to IF NOT AHEAD of the Conservatives. However if that “crossing over” point is reached it could lead to a collapse in the remaining Conservative vote which might decide that it may as well vote for Farage and Reform. I don’t think the Establishment desire that outcome so it looks like we are going to have to be very wary of these Polling Organisation. They seek to shape what we might do rather than reflect what we think! I will leave the final word to Nigel Farage.