UK Revolution incoming?

January 20th 2025 marks a new dawn for the Unites States but could it also usher in the prospect of a changing United Kingdom? Check out this new poll of British voting intentions.

The political terrain is shifting dramatically, based on this snapshot image. Now I KNOW this is early days and the most likely date for such an Election would be 2029, a very long time away. So much can change and probably will BUT the trends seem discernible.

Labour came to power last July with a thumping majority with 411 seats, up a massive 209 vs their 2019 performance. It now has 156 seats over what is required to govern. Yet if this new poll is correct, Labour will not only lose that majority but will actually fall into 2nd place, a prospect that seemed unthinkable only 6 months ago. The scale of loss would be as epic as the scale of victory last summer with hundreds of redundant Labour MPs.

However it is not the Conservatives that would wreak this utter destruction on Labour. In fact, if you study the figures, the Conseratives would shrink even further, sliding down to only 82 seats, an all time low. Worth remembering that Boris Johnson led them to victory in 2019 with 365 seats. If they come in with 82 seats, that would essentially marginalise them as a fringe party incapable of regaining power.

Reform is what causes this seismic shift. It would WIN the General Election outright cannibalising vast numbers of Labour seats and further Conservative seats. It could install Nigel Farage as Prime Minister although he would find it very hard to govern. with a majority of just six. That said, it would still change the face of British politics forever.

So much could happen still. Labour might be able to reverse the collapse but somehow I doubt that. The Conservatives might find a spark but the spectre of 14 years of utter incompetence and betrayal will still be there. Reform could gain even greater traction. Today, as the political tectonic plates shift in America we must hope it sets off a similar change in the UK.